Introduction:
This page discusses the impact on transport and mobility and explores several alternatives that pave the way for environmental solutions in the year 2021. Powertrains of passenger and commercial vehicles are increasingly being electrified to emit fewer or no harmful substances. The transition from fossil fuels to fully electric propulsion is part of the so-called “energy transition.”
The European Union aims to ban the sale of vehicles with gasoline and diesel engines from 2035. All new vehicles must be equipped with a fully electric powertrain in the form of a BEV or a fuel cell. Some countries, including the Netherlands, intend to ban the sale of new vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2030. In contrast, countries like France and Germany are strongly opposed to these plans, preferring a transition to hybrid powertrains to significantly reduce fleet emissions without fully electrifying.
Climate Change:
It is scientifically proven that climate change is caused by humans. Since the Industrial Revolution, especially since the 1950s, fossil resources such as oil and gas have been burned on a large scale. The combustion of oil and gas has led to a massive increase in CO2. Research indicates that CO2 emissions lead to global warming. The emissions of so-called “greenhouse gases” are partly responsible for climate change. Over the past 130 years, the temperature in the Netherlands has increased by 1.9 degrees Celsius.Globally, based on the current situation, the temperature is projected to rise to a minimum of 1.8 and a maximum of 6.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.As the air warms, the oceans are gradually heating up. The oceans cool down much more slowly than the air, which can fluctuate in temperature somewhat.
Climate warming of the oceans leads to different warm water current patterns. These currents are part of a global “conveyor belt” that circulates cold and warm water masses throughout all oceans. The Gulf Stream transports a lot of heat and is therefore important for the climate, especially for our mild Western European climate.
With a disruption or collapse of this ocean current, the pressure difference between the north and south of the Atlantic Ocean will also disappear. This results in the ocean in the south dropping by half a meter and the north rising by about half a meter. The rising sea level is concerning for our low-lying Netherlands, where approximately 25% of the land lies below sea level (NAP).
Sea level rise will range from 1 to 5 meters by the year 2150. Parts of the world will become uninhabitable due to higher temperatures and rising sea levels. Additionally, there will be more turbulent weather as storms, hurricanes, and heavy rain showers lead to floods.
A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level, making it very vulnerable to flooding. A staggering 55% of the Netherlands is flood-prone; 26% is below sea level and 29% is susceptible to river flooding.With dikes to protect the coastal areas and barriers to keep out (temporarily) high water levels, the risk of flooding is reduced.
Source: pbl.nl (consulted in 02-2024)
Gases in the Atmosphere:
The following image shows a graph depicting the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, seen from right to left, from the present day (0.0) to 800,000 years ago. CO2 measurements have been conducted from ice cores at the North and South Poles. The graph shows fluctuations in the amount of CO2 that have always occurred.
At the low points on the graph, there was an ice age. Approximately 12,000 years ago was the last ice age. After that, the graph has sharply risen, although it should have remained the same or decreased. During this period, the temperature should have been lower, contrary to what is often claimed: that it should have been warmer. The temperature graph is now shooting to an extreme high (indicated with “You are here”).Due to the melting ice, such measurements are becoming increasingly difficult to carry out.
The diagrams below show the amount of harmful gases emitted worldwide (left) and the CO2 emissions by sector (right). On this page, we focus on transport, which accounts for 14% of total CO2 emissions (as of 2021).
Climate Agreement:
In the Paris Climate Agreement, 195 countries worldwide agreed to significantly reduce CO2 emissions by decreasing fossil fuel use. According to the Dutch climate agreement of 2019, the goal is to reduce CO2 emissions by 49% by 2030 (increased to 55% due to EU policy). Concrete steps are being taken, such as stricter emission standards for cars. The Netherlands also aims for a reduction of 20.2 megatons of CO2 emissions. This figure indicates the intended reduction over a specific period and aims to decrease total greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change. The objective concerns various sectors, including energy production, transport, and industry.
Impact on the Mobility Sector:
Governments’ climate goals are forcing car manufacturers to further reduce harmful exhaust emissions from combustion engines. A major factor in this is CO2 emissions. In addition, more and more countries are introducing plans to ban the sale of vehicles with combustion engines between 2030 and 2040, leading to a transition to electrified powertrains:
- hybrids (partially electric combined with a combustion engine);
- fully electric;
- hydrogen and fuel cell.
The maximum emissions for cars (measured in CO2 per kilometer) are becoming increasingly stringent. Car manufacturers that fail to meet these targets face significant fines (in 2021: 95 grams CO2 per kilometer, in 2030: 59.3 grams CO2 per kilometer). More and more cities are implementing environmental zones where polluting cars are not allowed. From 2035, only “zero-emission” new cars are allowed in the Netherlands, meaning they must be battery-electric or hydrogen-electric.
Vehicles with a fully electrified powertrain have no exhaust from which harmful emissions exit. These vehicles are labeled as “green.” The range is often limited (80 to 300 km), and the charging times to recharge the battery pack are lengthy.
Partially electrified vehicles, such as hybrids, are ideal for longer distances. In city traffic, one can drive fully electric or with electrical support for the combustion engine for lower consumption. On the highway, the combustion engine kicks in, and one can travel worry-free without long charging times on holiday abroad.
But how clean and green is a fully electric car really? Opinions are strongly divided on this. The undersigned objectively points out facts.
A fully electric car is not climate neutral. There is both a direct emission of particulate matter (brakes, tires) and an indirect emission of nitrogen oxides (CO2 and NOx). Various studies do show that a fully electric car is cleaner over its entire lifespan than a car running on fossil fuels.
For the CO2 emissions of a fully electric car, 0 grams per kilometer are mentioned. This is the result of the WLTP test. There is no direct emission. As of 2021 in the Netherlands, “green” energy generated from wind turbines and solar panels is still limited. Most electricity is generated by burning gas and coal. This results in the following humorous illustrations, which unfortunately have a kernel of truth.
An honest comparison with fuel-powered cars is only when one accounts for the emissions to produce the electricity. Moreover, the production of batteries and electric motors requires a lot of CO2 and often uses scarce raw materials.The table below shows the amount of CO2 emissions per liter of gasoline, diesel, and LPG.
For the CO2 emissions of a fully electric vehicle, 0 grams per kilometer is noted. This is the result of the WLTP test. There is no direct emission, but CO2 is released during the generation of electrical energy. One kilogram of coal provides a maximum of 3.5 kWh, while its combustion releases a staggering 3.6 kg of CO2.
According to the WTW methodology, all CO2 generated from the exploration, extraction, transport, and storage of coal is attributed to the CO2 emissions of coal. As a result, emissions amount to 4.4 kg CO2 per kg of coal.
We are only looking at the total emissions during combustion, because according to the WTW methodology of gasoline and diesel, CO2 is also produced. We can see that, given the average consumption of the respective vehicles, CO2 emissions per kilometer for an electric vehicle are much higher than those running on fossil fuels. Source: AMT 5-2021
Green Energy:
When generating green energy, no CO2 is emitted. In the future, we see that gray energy (from coal) will increasingly be replaced by green energy obtained through wind or solar energy.
Only when all our electricity is generated from green energy will driving a fully electric vehicle be clean and “zero emission.”
Below are some facts about solar and wind energy.
Solar Energy on Land:
- 6,000,000 kWh/year = 44,000 m2, or 136 kWh / m2
- More predictable patterns and seasonal dependency.
- Quite scalable;
- Often easily “invisible” on rooftops or as a replacement for roof tiles.
Wind Energy on Land and Sea:
- 60,000,000 kWh/year (190,000 m2), or 32 kWh / m2;
- Less seasonal dependency;
- High output per unit;
- Visual pollution;
- Require a lot of space (5x rotor diameter) to avoid turbulence between blades.
In summary, the energy output per square meter from solar energy is higher than that from wind energy. However, since solar power varies considerably, and there is almost always wind (day, night, summer, and winter), the yield from wind is fairly constant. Solar panels are relatively easy to install inconspicuously and expand, whereas windmills can be a source of irritation for nearby residents or those who can no longer enjoy a clear view over a natural area.